Imagine a country in which every region has the same herd immunity threshold for Covid. Now imagine this country witnesses a Covid wave, but not every region suffers the same level of infections. This means some regions finish the first wave with more immunity than others.

If the hardest-hit regions have made substantial progress towards the herd immunity threshold, then in the second wave you’d expect them to suffer less than the country on average. …

Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

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